Innovation in council housebuilding: chapter seven

The ‘how’ of council housebuilding has three dimensions – resources, policy making and the development process.

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‘Resources’ involves bringing together powers, leadership, land and property, funding and skills. ‘Policy making’ centres on HRA business planning and financial modelling. The ‘development process’ focuses on the delivery pipeline, from site identification through to the planning system and construction. Understanding the complexity of each of these elements and sub-elements is vital. 

The findings for this chapter draw principally on the case studies. There are few, if any, previous detailed studies on this aspect of council housebuilding. There are a limited number of reports that provide basic information, for example from the Association of Retained Council Housing (2013), but these are not up-to-date. The funding aspect of resources (especially HRA finances) has, however, been covered in previous work and this is referred to below. 

Resources  

As has already been pointed out, there are five resource issues. It is the bringing together of each of these that is critical in taking forward council housebuilding.

Policy making

Councils are required to prepare a 30-year business plan for the HRA. This provides the basis for setting priorities on the use of the HRA, for example stock modernisation, council housebuilding, estate regeneration and so on. It also links with council-wide medium-term financial strategies. It is normally supported by more detailed five-year plans for the HRA and corporate annual capital programmes, as well as being co-ordinated with council-wide asset management strategies. The policies and priorities are also usually cross-referenced to local housing strategies and housing policies on affordable housing provision in local plans.

Diagram two: policy making framework

Policy context, for example:

Council housing, for example: 

Council resource plans, for example:

• corporate/community plan 
• HRA 30-year business plan 
• corporate capital programmes 
• local housing strategy 
• HRA five-year plan 
• corporate revenue programmes 
• local plan 
• HRA annual updates 
• asset management strategies 
• economic development 
   

The major challenge for local authorities is that the intended stable framework for business planning as part of the self-financing settlement has been thrown off course because of changes in Government policies such as rent setting, promotion of right to buy and welfare changes. This has made business planning more challenging because underpinning assumptions frequently have had to be altered.

The online survey results, therefore, contrast with the findings reported in the study by the Association of Retained Council Housing (2013). The latter noted that councils were in a learning period on business planning but were generally in the position of having a clear framework on integrating HRA strategies with corporate policy making and governance. There was a generally held view that the HRA business plans would only require minor modifications each year because the assumptions on key variables, such as rent levels through to inflation, would not significantly change.

This contrasts with the present position, with over half of respondents pointing out that they will be reviewing and rewriting their HRA business plans in 2018. Of these, over 50 per cent had previously revised their strategies as recently as 2017. A small minority, however, were taking the view that they would postpone a review until, for example, “we have certainties over Government policy on high-value assets and the levy” associated with voluntary right to buy. Since then, Government has confirmed that the forced sale of high-value assets will not be implemented.

An element of HRA policy making is financial modelling. As both the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy and Chartered Institute of Housing (2016) and the Association of Retained Council Housing (2013) point out, this is important for deciding on HRA investment priorities. It normally involves, firstly, a basic model using government-based assumptions on inflation, rents and so on. Secondly, a sensitivity analysis is undertaken to identify key variables and assumptions. Thirdly, the model is then reworked on the basis of changing these key assumptions to help explore the financial options and trajectories.         

Development process

The development process (or development pipeline) is a vital part of council housebuilding. As with the real estate development process as a whole, there are a series of sequential steps and stages. These can be conceptualised as comprising four broad overlapping phases – initiation, feasibility, project management and lettings. The first three of these are especially relevant for this project.

Diagram three: development process

Housing diagram

In reality, the development process for a single scheme for council housebuilding is more complex:

  • financial viability is constantly monitored and amended as information changes and becomes more detailed (such as site conditions)
  • elements are interrelated – for example, a change in funding affects viability, leading to modifications to design and layout
  • delays, postponements and even abandonment of a project can happen because of, for instance, changes in national policy or funding.

Five further interrelated points are significant. Firstly, the case studies demonstrate that there may be a number of individual projects in the development pipeline at any one point in time (such as in Birmingham). Each will be at a different stage. This has advantages and disadvantages. The advantages include the ability to switch resources between projects if one scheme becomes stalled. The disadvantages centre on the need to be able to manage a number of projects at the same time.

Secondly, and of increasing significance, there is the complexity of developing larger sites where council housebuilding is, for instance, one element of a bigger regeneration scheme (such as Camden’s CIP). It could involve a multiplicity of providers such as housing associations and private sector housebuilders, and an extensive consultation process. Inevitably, the development process for these strategic sites will be much longer and more complex.

Thirdly, planning is a vital consideration throughout the development process:

  • at the initiation stage, matching sites with identified housing requirements is a significant part of the planning process
  • planning requirements on design and layout are important at the feasibility stage
  • obtaining planning permission (including unilateral undertakings) may not be straightforward, especially if there are objections from adjacent landowners and residents
  • throughout the development process, community involvement is vital in gaining support for a scheme – including residents’ and tenants’ associations and , in rural areas, parish councils.

Fourthly, the timetable can be lengthy for the development of even a small site. With a favourable planning policy and community support, the three stages prior to letting new homes may still take 12-18 months. Some of the case study authorities highlighted that large mixed tenure brownfield sites with a capacity in excess of 100 units could take over five years from initiation to lettings.

Lastly, viability assessment is an ongoing exercise throughout the development process. Key points include:

  • moving from broad overall assessments at the initiation stage to highly detailed studies at the feasibility stage
  • regularly reviewing and updating viability as more information becomes available, such as site conditions and infrastructure requirements
  • being prepared to respond to changes in the external policy environment on, for example, national planning policies and funding.

In relation to the last point, it is important to appreciate that these changes may be positive as well as negative. A number of our case study councils indicated that the MHCLG prospectus on the additional HRA borrowing programme opened up possibilities of developing sites that had stalled at the start of the feasibility stage. 

In broad terms, viability is a relatively straightforward concept. As one of our case study councils pointed out: “A positive or negative viability assessment of a single scheme is determined by the rental income generated over a pay-back period compared with development costs (including offsets such as grants), on-costs, ongoing maintenance and management costs and any loan repayments.” However, each of these elements is complex, as illustrated in the table below.

Table four: viability assessment elements  

Element

Commentary

Rental income

The amount of income from rents over the pay-back period (i.e. rental stream). It is an estimated figure based on judgements on likely rent increases/decreases.

Pay-back period

This is the length of time considered reasonable to repay the investment made. It relates to the life of the asset. Some of the case studies use 50 years.

Development costs

These primarily include (i) construction, (ii) acquisition of land and property (if required) and (iii) contingency sum to cover unknown costs. Notional land costs are not normally included where sites are owned by councils. Development costs may be offset by grants and other funding sources such as commuted sums from planning agreements.

On-costs

This covers costs such as design fees and the use of consultants. In some cases this is included within development costs. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has highlighted that there is a lack of clarity and consistency in its use.

Maintenance and management

Estimated day-to-day repairs and maintenance costs together with management costs.

Loans

Loan repayments such as HRA borrowing

 

It is important to appreciate that viability assessments must be understood in the context of the wider HRA business plan priorities and the HRA borrowing cap.