Cost pressures
Recent Local Government Association (LGA) analysis estimates that the average increase in annual cost pressures facing councils is £2.6 billion per year to maintain services at their current level of access and quality, meaning that the same services will cost around £7.8 billion more to provide in three years’ time. Of this, £1.1 billion per year is related to adult social care (in addition to a pre-existing £1.5 billion provider market pressure), £0.6 billion to children’s social care and £0.9 billion to all other council services (excluding education and police/fire services).
This does not include any continued impact of COVID-19, for example the health impacts of ‘long COVID’, catching up on pent up demand in children’s social care, or the longer-term effects on sales, fees and charges or commercial income.
For all these pressures to be met through council tax alone, income from council tax would have to increase by 8 per cent each year, which is not sustainable. However, if no funding is found, councils would have to make savings worth the entirety of their spending on museums, sports facilities, swimming pools, libraries and parks – each year.
Table 1: Projected total net expenditure by service area 2021/22 to 2024/25. Total Net Expenditure (£ billions)
|
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Average annual increase |
Change 21/22 to 24/25 |
Adult social care |
20.0 |
21.1 |
22.3 |
23.3 |
1.1 |
16.6% |
Children's social care |
10.9 |
11.4 |
12.1 |
12.6 |
0.6 |
15.9% |
Homelessness |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
0.1 |
27.2% |
All other services (excl. education, police and fire) |
20.1 |
20.9 |
22.1 |
22.6 |
0.8 |
12.5% |
Total net expenditure (excl. education, police and fire) |
51.8 |
54.3 |
57.5 |
59.6 |
2.6 |
15.0% |
Other underlying pressures
As in previous years, no improvements to services are included – the £2.6 billion annual average cost pressures are related purely to increased demand and costs of providing the same services, rather than expanding access or increasing the quality of services which would come at additional cost. Underlying problems with services, such as the provider market pressure in adult social care or the remaining SEND service funding deficits held by councils, would stay at the same level as previously, without making it better or worse. Further funding injections would be required to deal with these challenges, or future pressures in these challenges, should they grow.
The following table shows this funding requirement including cost pressures:
Table 2: Core revenue funding needs, 2022/23 to 2024/25
|
2022/23
£bn |
2023/24
£bn |
2024/25
£bn |
Cost pressures (average of £2.6bn per year as above) |
2.5 |
5.7 |
7.8 |
Existing adult social care provider market pressures |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
Existing pressures on children's social care |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Existing pressures on homelessness |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Addressing the public health service underfunding |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
SEND deficits not met by funding |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
Total core revenue funding need |
6.7 |
9.9 |
12.0 |
While the list above covers key identifiable underlying pressures, it is important to note that there are other specific pressures and new burdens, the funding of which falls on core council resources and are more difficult to quantify. They are identified, where relevant, elsewhere in the submission.
Special educational needs and disabilities
The cost pressures set out previously exclude education, and in turn special educational needs and disabilities (SEND), owing to the difficulty in separating local government responsibilities and expenditure from other school and local education authority (LEA) expenditure. However, the ongoing financial impact of SEND must not be understated. The number of children and young people with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) has risen year on year for the past decade, with an 11 per cent rise in the last year alone. Although the future costs of SEND are difficult to pin down, research from ISOS commissioned by the LGA in 2018 shows that from 2015/16 to 2018/19 expenditure increased by 17 per cent across the 93 authorities which responded to a survey.
Government has provided additional funding for SEND of £250 million over 2018/19 and 2019/20, and £700 million in 2020/21. However, despite this additional funding, there remains an estimated funding gap of £0.6 billion by 2021.
Furthermore, these one-time cash injections, although welcome, have not been formally included in the baseline of the High Needs Block funding provided to councils, meaning that funding continues to further lag behind costs. Whilst annual increases in High Needs Block resources is welcomed, it does not go far enough to keep pace with demand. Moreover, there is uncertainty in the funding councils will receive, despite the trend in EHCP numbers, resulting in difficulty managing future risks from an already squeezed system.
COVID-19
Local government has coordinated and delivered the national government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic at a local level. Working with national government, councils have drawn on strong local leadership coupled with exceptional commitment from councillors and council staff to protect the most vulnerable in our society and ensure vital services continue to be provided, showing what can be achieved when we work together towards a shared goal.
Central and local government have protected rough sleepers and homeless people, helped those defined as clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) to shield to protect themselves from the virus, set up effective local virus tracing partnerships, supported businesses with vital grants, and helped distribute the largest vaccination programme in our history. Local government can be, and has been, trusted to deliver on national priorities.
For many people their local area matters now more than ever, with an emphasis on the value of green spaces, safe communities, and efficiently run public services. For some, the issues they faced pre-pandemic – access to fast broadband, appropriate housing – have been amplified. The role councils play will have a greater significance in the lives of people as we emerge into the post-pandemic era.
The pandemic has caused extraordinary financial costs to local government. Councils reported to Government, the financial impact of COVID-19 in 2020/21 was an estimated £9.5 billion (consisting of £6.8 billion of cost pressures and £2.7 billion of non-tax income losses). In addition, councils estimate £2.2 billion of lost local tax income. Central government has supported councils financially, with £8.5 billion of grants as well as compensation schemes for a proportion of lost sales, fees, and charges, and local tax income.
The effects of COVID-19 will be felt far beyond the end of the current phase of the pandemic.
- Economic vulnerability and the long-term health effects some people experience from COVID-19 will continue to hinder society’s full recovery.
- Council delivered adult social care and mental health services will play a pivotal role in supporting people.
- Children and young people have missed out on education, developmental milestones, and important life-events.
- The pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities, leading to higher rates of coronavirus infections and death amongst the most disadvantaged people.
Councils are best placed to identify people in their local areas who need the most support, and what support is required. This will require substantial backing from Government to bolster the recovery from the pandemic and ensure people are supported in the long term.
Councils continue to be financially hit by the crisis, with costs and losses of income likely to continue. It is difficult to predict the uncertain nature of how the pandemic, and its legacy, will impact local government. We welcome the funding Government has provided to date and call on Government to continue to monitor the situation both in the short and long term, providing vital support when needed. If the Coronavirus mutates again, and we are faced with a virus that escapes our current vaccine programme, it will be extremely important to be able to stand up all of the response infrastructure we have built, allowing councils to step in as they have done to protect our vulnerable communities, contain the virus, and keep our local economies going.
Efficiency
It is important to recognise that one of the goals of the Spending Review will be to set a new path towards sustainability of the public finances after the impact of COVID-19. This requires looking at how the public sector spends money, and on what priorities.
Councils have delivered more than their fair share of the burden of putting public finances on a more sustainable footing over the past decade and stand ready to help Government with the task ahead.
- Prior to the pandemic, councils had already dealt with a £15 billion real terms reduction to core government funding between 2010 and 2020. They responded to this by being more efficient, streamlining services and finding new and innovative ways of operating while still delivering the vital services their residents rely on and value.
- By way of example, there are now 626 shared services arrangements, with councils sharing the cost of a number of different services. These changes have achieved £1.3 billion of cumulative efficiency savings – money which is being used to protect the delivery of valued public services to local communities. Council planning departments have cut spending by 46 per cent in real terms. Despite this, councils have improved efficiency in making planning decisions, increasing the rate of decisions on planning applications received by 2 per cent since 2015/16.
- The traditional means of delivering efficiencies within local government have been exhausted. LGA work undertaken prior to the pandemic showed that the vast majority of remaining variation in spending between councils on older people’s adult social care and children’s services – the two biggest service areas – was explained by factors outside the control of councils (78 per cent and 71 per cent respectively).
- Despite the sustained pressure on council finances and the fact that local government is close to exhausting all efficiencies, residents’ trust in local government decision making remains high – nearly three quarters of residents trust their local council most to make decisions about how services are provided in their local area, compared to only 17 per cent who trust central government more.
Building back whilst stabilising public finances needs a completely different approach which unlocks the capabilities of local government to deliver savings across the public sector, instead of looking at local government budgets as just another budget line.
Councils are ready to help the Government deliver further significant efficiencies to the public purse through the following measures:
- A renewed focus on prevention, backed by government investment. A sure-fire way to address existing and future demand for services such as social care, homelessness support and community safety is to invest in lower cost approaches which help strengthen people, communities and local infrastructure. However, with council budgets stretched, a challenge of this scale needs to be kickstarted with government investment. Our submission provides a rich set of such investment opportunities.
- Reducing the fragmentation of government funding. Research commissioned for the LGA found that in 2017/18, nearly 250 different grants were provided to local government. Half of these grants were worth £10 million or less nationally. At the same time, these grants are highly specific – 82 per cent of the grants are intended for a specific service area. Around a third of the grants are awarded on a competitive basis and there is a cost to every application councils make, whether or not successful. All of these factors mean that if fragmentation and the ringfencing of grants is reduced, the system of local government funding can provide much better value for the same amount of funding.
- Bringing budgets together in a place. The approach to tackling fragmented funding can go much further, by looking beyond just local government funding. We need to allocate money to places and not departmental silos. A shared financial and governance framework will mean that services can better align with local priorities and local duplication of efforts can be eliminated. This Spending Review should place emphasis on communities and place by introducing multi-department place-based budgets, explicitly built around the needs of diverse local communities using equality impact assessments.
- Supporting councils to make local self-financed investments to help transform services leading to savings or generated income. This is covered immediately below.
Certainty
In addition to sufficiency in funding levels, certainty to enable councils to plan appropriately is just as important.
Councils have received one-year funding envelopes for three years in a row now and this is an obstacle to councils to making innovative and meaningful decisions over financial planning, so hampering their financial sustainability. Councils may end up planning on the assumption that they will have less funding available to them than is actually the case, needlessly scaling back non-statutory services and making redundancies.
Government must commit to councils receiving a three-year Spending Review settlement, including as much information as possible, such as council tax referendum limits (if any). The NHS, defence and schools have been benefitting from longer term certainty and the same should apply to council services which are vital to the national recovery, even if all other departments receive a one-year Spending Review outcome.
An early, three-year local government finance settlement should translate the Spending Review outcome into individual council settlements. In recent years, local government finance settlements have been published in draft form very late in December, after the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities’ stated target of 5 December. This target should be met.
The lack of certainty has been further exacerbated by the number of financial reforms which have been paused. Lack of information about whether and when these reforms will resume would mean that even if there was certainty over the overall total council funding sums for a number of years, this would not give individual councils the certainty they need for financial planning.
In this light, it would be extremely helpful to local government to receive confirmation of whether and when each of the planned local government finance reforms will be implemented as soon as possible. This includes the review of relative needs and resources (also called the Fair Funding Review), the business rates reset and the parameters of the new homes bonus.
Providing certainty on these issues would make a significant difference to council financial planning, and therefore public services, even without a Spending Review outcome. Councils could make decisions which provide better value for money for the taxpayer, by making longer term investments that deliver savings, if they had longer term certainty over funding. Of course, if or when financial reforms do go ahead, overall funding will need to be sufficient to facilitate them and to ensure no council sees its funding reduce.
Local taxation
Reforming council tax
Council tax increases, including the adult social care precept, are not a long-term solution to funding services. Increasing council tax raises different amounts of money in different parts of the country. On its own, council tax falls short of the sustainable long-term funding that is needed to improve the services our communities and local economies will need to recover from the pandemic. However, that does not mean that council tax cannot be improved even without fundamental reform. We would like to work with Government to make council tax more local:
- To strengthen the accountability of councils to their residents through the local election process, the council tax referendum limit should be abolished so councils and their communities can decide what increase in council tax is warranted to protect or improve local services. Ending referendum principles would also improve value for money – a referendum costing potentially up to £1 million would have to be organised to approve a council tax bill increase of as little as £1.15 per week. Failing that, the Government should consider ways to define the referendum limit which do not reward or penalise councils based on their past decisions. For example, the percentage-based limit could be replaced by a threshold which allows higher percentage increases to areas with lower council tax levels, similar to the £5 flexibility provided to shire district councils. In addition, the council tax levy paid to drainage boards should not be counted towards the cap on council tax rises. Any additional costs should not fall on council taxpayers.
- To make sure the tax system is fair to everyone according to local circumstances, councils should have the powers to vary all council tax discounts and eligibility criteria. Most discounts and exemptions are fixed nationally. A prime example is the single person discount, worth 25 per cent of the total bill and applied to all households where there is only one liable occupant, regardless of their ability to pay. This discount is currently worth £3 billion each year, covering around a third of all dwellings.
- To improve the build-out rates of homes with planning permission and reduce the number of stalled sites, councils should be able to charge developers or landowners full Band D council tax for every unbuilt development in these situations, as opposed to having to wait for the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) to list developments following their completion. LGA analysis suggests that over one million homes granted planning permission since 2010 have not yet been built. This is equivalent to three years’ worth of Government’s target number of homes to be delivered each year.
- As COVID-19 support measures, like the furlough scheme, end from September 2021 the local Council Tax Support (CTS) Covid Grant should be continued for the three years of the 2021 Spending Review, linked to changes in the number of predicted working age claimants, so councils can continue to help the most vulnerable council taxpayers.
- We would like to work with the Government to improve the generational fairness of local CTS by revisiting the pensioner element of local CTS to give councils more flexibility. However, this should not be accompanied by further reductions in government funding for CTS to avoid the experience of the 2010s.
Reforming business rates
As part of the Government’s Business Rates Review, the Government has acknowledged that business rates are an important source of revenue for local government and stated that the impact on the local government funding system will be an important consideration in reviewing the tax.
Property continues to provide a good basis for a local tax on business. Business rates are efficient to collect and have been relatively predictable and buoyant in recent years. However, the changing nature of business alongside the nature of demand pressures on councils means that we cannot look to business rates to form such a substantial part of local government funding in the future and alternative means of funding councils will be needed instead of, or as well as, a reformed business rates system.
Our proposals for reforming business rates include the following:
- If local authorities had more leeway on business rates relief, they would be able to help local and independent businesses in order to stimulate the local economy. This could be done by making large national reliefs, such as charitable and empty property relief, discretionary. It would also allow councils to incentivise other behaviours that match local and national economic priorities, for example providing reliefs for new or green investments.
- Many fundamental concepts have been set by case law and not by statute, leading to results which may seem puzzling to the public, such as the fact that large vacant sites may not pay business rates. Changes in the basis of liability are needed so that more is defined in statute.
- The complex framework of business rates exemptions needs to be reviewed. This includes, for example, agricultural exemptions where there are businesses which should normally be rated but just happen to be located on farms.
- Aggressive business rates avoidance continues to cost councils and central government more than £250 million each year. We call for the Government to tighten up on the abuse of reliefs along the same lines as have been introduced in Wales and Scotland.
- We will be replying to the consultation on more frequent revaluations which proposes a compliance regime for ratepayers at the same time as the move to three yearly revaluations. We consider that a similar compliance regime should apply to ratepayers in their dealings with local authorities.
- Local government should be able to set its own business rates multiplier, or at the very least be able to set a multiplier above and below the nationally set multiplier. Local authorities ought to have the power to vary multipliers by property value or property type. This would enable them, for example, to charge a higher multiplier to businesses, such as online warehouses, in order to support reliefs for other businesses.
Alternative and new sources of funding
The Government’s fundamental business rates review, which considers both reforms and alternatives to the tax, is an important opportunity to take a fresh look at the local government finance system as it is being stress-tested by the impact of the pandemic.
For example:
- The recent announcement of a health and social care levy follows our long-standing calls on the Government to make the case for national taxation increases, or new levies, to fund adult social care pressures. The announcements are covered in more detail in the next chapter.
- Taxation should be fair for both physical and online businesses. We welcome the fact that the Government is consulting on proposals for an online levy as part of the review, however the proceeds of such a levy should be retained by local government to diversify the local taxbase. We look forward to action on this when the review reports.
Overall, local government needs a funding system that raises sufficient resources for local priorities in a way that is fair for residents and gives local politicians the tools they need to be the leaders of their communities. It is therefore important that the tax system provides as much certainty as possible.
In the meantime, we are calling on the Government to publish a progress update on the review as part of Spending Review announcements.
Capital investment framework
Investing in infrastructure with capital spending will be crucial to delivering the social and economic recovery from the pandemic, delivering key government priorities on net zero, housing and regeneration, and making the public sector more efficient and able to deliver better value for money while providing key services for citizens.
Councils are best placed to deliver capital infrastructure to enable economic regeneration, housing and school improvements, service transformation and to support Government’s move towards net zero carbon emissions, if they are given the right financial freedoms, flexibilities and support.
The Government has recently published its ‘planned improvements’ for the local authority capital framework. We welcome the undertaking that any significant changes to the capital regime will be subject to individual consultations, and as yet the full detail of what the changes are and what they will mean is not yet clear. However, we will continue to make the case that any changes need to be proportionate and that the overall framework for capital finance should continue to allow local authorities wide freedoms to borrow and invest, without the need to seek prior approval from government, if councils are to be able to play their key role in delivering capital infrastructure.
Our submission contains many examples of where councils can play a key role in delivering priorities, such as fixing the nation’s roads and delivering economic regeneration, delivering high speed broadband and high-quality mobile connectivity everywhere, investment in housing (coupled with reform of Right to Buy), schools, transport infrastructure, as well as tackling environmental challenges including reforms to waste and recycling and carbon reduction.
Government grant funding of council capital programmes has reduced in recent years. Capital funding in 2019/20, the last year for which outturn figures were published, was £300 million lower than in 2014/15. If 2014/15 levels of grant had been maintained in the intervening years councils would have had an additional £2.3 billion to invest in local capital projects between 2014/15 and 2019/20. Such funding could help shore up local infrastructure – for example it could reduce the highways repairs backlog by a fifth, be used for local housing and regeneration, or put towards the provision of additional school places.
Where government capital grant funding is available, it is frequently fragmented and accompanied by bureaucratic and burdensome bidding processes. For example, there are at least 11 different capital funding streams for roads investment alone, each with their own arrangements, rules and allocation processes. Councils have frequently had to consider the risk of investing significant time and revenue resources that cannot be spared into long-winded processes that are not guaranteed to deliver any local benefits.
A further funding freedom can be delivered very simply, and at no cost, by making the flexible use of capital receipts arrangements permanent and available to fund all transformational and savings projects. Government first introduced this flexibility in 2015 and although extension of the scheme beyond 2022 was announced in the 2021 Budget, details of how the scheme will operate have not yet been confirmed. The Spending Review is the opportunity to make this permanent, adding certainty and removing the need for further review.