At paragraph 36, the Plan states:
“The Government will ensure local authorities have access to sustainable funding for core budgets at the Spending Review. We expect demographic and unit cost pressures will be met through council tax, social care precept, and long-term efficiencies; the overall level of local government funding, including council tax and social care precept, will be determined in the round at the Spending Review in the normal way.”
LGA view
It is deeply troubling that the Government’s solution for addressing social care’s core pressures appears to be the use of council tax, social care precept and long-term efficiencies. This is wholly unrealistic.
As above, we estimate that an annually recurring cost pressure of £1.5 billion needs to be funded to stabilise the care provider market. We also estimate that core pressures (inflation, demography and National Living Wage) total £1.1 billion per year to keep services running at 2019/20 levels of quality and access. Councils will of course continue their tireless work to be as efficient as possible, but realism is needed, and lessons need to be learned from the past. Over the previous decade, during which council tax increased by nearly 22 per cent and the social care precept generated £1.8 billion (2019/20), adult social care had to meet a funding gap of £6.1 billion. £4.1 billion of this was met by making savings to adult social care and a further £2 billion was diverted from other council services, cutting them faster than would otherwise have been the case.
For illustrative purposes, to meet the costs outlined in the paragraph above through council tax alone, council tax income would have to rise by about 9 per cent in 2022/23 and by a further 4 per cent in each of 2023/24 and 2024/25, without factoring in wider cost pressures on councils.
A continuing reliance on council tax, the precept and efficiencies will further destabilise social care and other vital council services, many of which contribute to people’s wider wellbeing. As we have repeatedly said, council tax (and therefore the precept) raises different amounts in different parts of the country; councils with higher levels of deprivation tend to have a lower potential amount to raise.
It also has the potential to create confusion and frustration among the public. On the one hand people are being told that the new Levy will fund adult social care, on the other hand people may see potentially significant increases in their local taxes to fund the very same service. Rather than create a simpler system of funding, the Plan paves the way for entrenching the complexity of funding that has beset social care for so long.
The Government must move away from thinking that council tax, the social care precept and long-term efficiencies are the solutions for social care’s core pressures.
The Spending Review must inject genuinely new funding, direct to local government, to both stabilise the system in the short-term and enable progress to be made in tackling unmet and under-met need, investing more in prevention, improving care worker pay and better supporting unpaid carers.