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Councillor David Fothergill discusses the effects of the UK's declining birthrate on local services.
For the first time in nearly 50 years, excluding the Covid pandemic, deaths have outnumbered births in the UK. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), there were 16,300 more deaths than births in the year to June 2023. This shift marks a significant demographic change with far-reaching implications for the country's future.
The ONS reported that there were just over 664,000 births and over 680,000 deaths in the UK during this period to the end of June 2023. While deaths outnumbered births in Scotland and Wales, the opposite occurred in England and Northern Ireland.
The ONS found that the fertility rate across England and Wales fell to 1.49 children per woman in 2022, down from 1.55 in 2021. To maintain a population, its “replacement rate” needs to be at least 2.1 children per woman, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
44%
In England and Wales 44 per cent of women aged 30 have children, compared to 58 per cent of their mothers' generation at the same age.
When their grandmothers were 30, that proportion was 81 per cent. Falling birth rates aren't, of course, unique to the UK, almost every continent has a growing age-dependency ratio as average birth rates fall and people live longer.
Economic challenges, such as the rising cost of living, including housing and childcare expenses, have made it financially difficult for many families to have more children.
Additionally, changing social norms and reproductive freedom have led to a shift in attitudes towards family and parenthood, with many individuals and couples choosing to delay having children or opt for smaller family sizes.
Health and fertility issues are another significant factor, as age-related fertility decline becomes more prevalent when women delay childbirth, reducing the chances of conception. The declining birth rate has several potential consequences for local government. One major impact is the aging population.
With fewer births, the proportion of older adults in the population increases, placing pressure on social services, healthcare, and pensions, as there are fewer working-age individuals. Economically, a shrinking workforce can lead to labour shortages and reduced economic growth. This can affect industries that rely on a steady supply of young workers and may necessitate increased migration to fill gaps in the labour market. Additionally, the demand for healthcare, education, and social care services increases as the population ages, straining public resources.
Since 2020, the Department for Education has published projections of how many children in England would be in state education. Schools are in the frontline as pupil numbers decline. According to the Resolution Foundation, schools in England could lose up to £1 billion in funding by 2030, with exceptional falls in pupil numbers prompting closures as some establishments cease to be financially viable. Councils across the country have begun to consult local residents about mergers and closures to make the system viable.
Addressing the declining birth rate requires a multifaceted approach. Supporting families through policies that provide financial assistance, such as child benefits, tax credits, and affordable childcare, can help alleviate the economic pressures of raising children. Encouraging work-life balance by promoting flexible work arrangements and parental leave policies can make it easier for parents to balance their careers and family life. Improving access to healthcare and fertility services can assist individuals and couples who face challenges in conceiving.
The fact that deaths have outstripped births in the UK for the first time in nearly 50 years is a significant demographic shift with far-reaching implications. As governments around the world consider what steps to take, it is imperative that the reproductive autonomy of individuals be respected and supported.
There are no easy solutions. The Scottish Government's Population Taskforce, set up in June 2019 and involving Economy, Health, and Local Government Secretaries alongside several ministers, serves as a potential model for Westminster. It could be part of the mission-led approach, a cross-departmental working group should develop solutions to address population change and demographic issues in England.
It's impossible to predict the future. Deciding to have children, and how many, depends on a mix of personal, biological, social, economic, cultural, political, and environmental influences. All we can be certain of is that the future will bring change.