LG2040: forces shaping local government

How we did it

People from across local government took part, through workshops, interviews and online engagement. The work ran in three stages:

• Scanning – A horizon scan identifying 49 drivers shaping local government
• Sense-making – Workshops to prioritise drivers and build a futures landscape of five themes
• Hopeful futures – Creative sessions exploring what a positive 2040 could look like, through the eyes of five characters

The drivers of change

The starting point for LG2040 was a horizon scan: a structured look at the forces already reshaping the world councils operate in. Drivers of change are trends and shifts that are already underway, whose consequences will play out over the years to 2040.

The full drivers set is a resource in its own right. Councils can use it for their own horizon scanning, strategy development and scenario work.

Download drivers deck

The futures landscape

Through workshops with people from across the sector, we used the drivers to build a picture of the landscape councils will face by 2040. Five themes emerged. Each describes a pattern of change, and each comes with a choice.

• Resetting the local – Rising demand for statutory services leads to recurring financial pressure-unless the relationship between local and national government changes
• Rebalancing the flows – Economic conditions continue to disadvantage some places-unless there is a shift towards localism and self-reliance
• Rooting resilience locally – Climate and resource pressures test essential systems-unless resilience is embedded locally
• Renegotiating trust and plurality – Changing media and politics erode trust in institutions-unless they adapt
• Rebuilding social infrastructure – The decline of civic spaces weakens belonging and early support-unless social infrastructure is renewed

These are not predictions or scenarios. They are five lenses on the same system, each highlighting risks, opportunities, and choices.

Download futures landscape report

Hopeful futures

What does a good 2040 look like for the people councils serve?

The hopeful futures work brings the themes to life. In workshops across the sector – including youth voices – participants explored what success might look like if opportunities within each theme were realised.

Each story is available to read and to listen to as an audio piece, a fly-on-the-wall moment from 2040.

The hopeful futures illustrations will be added soon but the full vignettes are available to read via the report.

These stories are not forecasts. They are invitations: a way to test the themes against real places and real lives, and to start conversations about what a hopeful 2040 could look like where you are.

What's next

Phase One is the starting point. The next phase of LG2040 moves from insight to application – exploring what these themes mean in practice and how they can support change.

This will involve working with councils and partners to:

• test ideas in real contexts
• apply the themes to decision-making and strategy
• build a deeper understanding of how the system needs to evolve.

LG2040 is part of LG Horizons, the LGA’s programme supporting long-term thinking in local government.