To unlock the full potential of councils the sector needs sufficient and sustainable funding, and increased freedoms and flexibilities. Over the long-term there needs to be a review of, and reform to, the overall revenue funding system for councils.
Cost pressures
Economy-wide pressures
A fundamental challenge facing the sector is that cost and demand pressures are rising faster than funding. While inflation has fallen since its peak in 2022/23, the sector is still grappling with the huge resulting uplift in its cost base. Councils also continue to face wage pressures driven by increases in the National Living Wage (NLW) alongside cost and demand pressures in specific service areas. Our analysis demonstrates that by 2026/27 cost and demand pressures will have added £8.9 billion to the cost of delivering council services since 2024/25. This is 12.5 per cent in additional service cost pressures in just two years.
The NLW has been a particularly significant driver of councils’ costs over recent years. The NLW rate increased by 9.7 per cent in 2023/24 and 9.8 per cent in 2024/25. Both of these increases were at the top end of the Low Pay Commission’s forecast. If this pattern continued into 2025/26 this would mean a 6.5 per cent increase in the NLW for 2025/26. (Based on the Low Pay Commission’s March 2024 forecast)
Our analysis indicates that these increases added £1.4 billion and £1.6 billion to the cost of commissioned adult social care services in 2023/24 and 2024/25 respectively. A 6.5 per cent increase in 2025/26 would add a further £1.2 billion. That is a potential £4.2 billion in additional costs for commissioned adult social care over three years due to unfunded NLW increases. Furthermore, although less exposed to the NLW than adult social care, other council service budgets have been affected by these unfunded NLW increases as pay awards have exceeded affordability for many councils.
Service specific pressures
In addition to the economy-wide inflationary and wage pressures there are individual service areas with cost and demand dynamics that are exerting higher cost pressures:
- Rising costs in children’s social care – councils face growing complexity of need and increases in placement costs.LGA research has shown that in 2022/23 councils paid for over 1,500 placements costing £10,000 or more per week – more than 10 times greater than the 120 placements purchased by councils at this price in 2018/19. This has created huge pressure on councils’ budgets with budgeted real terms spend on children’s social care increasing by £2.8 billion (25.7 per cent) from 2019/20 to 2024/25. There appears to be no real sign of this budget pressure reducing. Of the additional £2.8 billion in budgeted spend since 2019/20, £1.3 billion of this increase was from 2023/24 to 2024/25.
- Escalating costs of home to school transport for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). The number of children and young people with an Education, Care and Health Plan increased by 62.7 per cent from 2018/19 to 2023/24. This in turn has driven a real-terms increase in budgeted spend by councils on home to school transport for children with SEND of £544 million (64.3 per cent). Overall, councils budgeted £1.4 billion in 2023/24 for SEND home to school transport.
- Increasing costs and demand in adult social care means budgeted net spend on adult social care increased by £3.7 billion (18.1 per cent) in real terms from 2019/20 to 2024/25. As with children’s social care, despite the rate of inflation falling from its recent peak there is little sign of these cost pressures tailing off. Of the additional £3.7 billion in budgeted spend since 2019/20, £1.9 billion of this increase was from 2023/24 to 2024/25. A Spring 2024 survey of Directors of Adult Social Services concluded that the financial situation facing the service “is as bad as it has been in recent history”. Budget overspends in 2023/24 were the highest for a decade, savings required in 2024/25 are at their highest for eight years and there is an “increasing reliance on one-off reserves to prop up budgets”.
- Increasing costs of homelessness services with multiple contributory cost and demand drivers, including asylum and resettlement issues and an insufficient supply of affordable housing. Government data shows that more than 117,000 households, including 151,630 children, were in temporary accommodation at the end of March 2024 – the highest figures since records began in 1998. Councils’ budgeted net spend on homelessness services has increased by £604 million (77.4 per cent) in real terms from 2019/20 to 2024/25. Again, there is no sign of these cost pressures abating with £336 million of this increase taking place from 2023/24 to 2024/25.
There is no sign of pressures subsiding in these service areas. Based on a continuation in these pressures our modelling shows the significant cost pressures they will generate for the sector over 2025/26 and 2026/27 (Table 1).
Table 1: Modelled cost pressures by service compared to 2024/25
|
Additional spend - 2025/26 compared to 2024/25 (£bn)
|
Additional spend - 2026/27 compared to 2024/25 (£bn)
|
Additional spend - 2026/27 compared to 2024/25 (%)
|
Children's social care |
1.6
|
3.5
|
22.2%
|
Other education (incl. home to school trans.) |
0.4
|
0.8
|
15.7%
|
Housing and homelessness |
0.2
|
0.4
|
14.8%
|
Adult social care |
1.8
|
2.8
|
11.3%
|
Central and other services |
0.2
|
0.4
|
8.4%
|
Public health |
0.2
|
0.3
|
8.2%
|
Planning and development |
0.1
|
0.1
|
6.2%
|
Fire services |
0.0
|
0.0
|
6.0%
|
Highways and transport |
0.1
|
0.1
|
5.6%
|
Culture and leisure |
0.1
|
0.2
|
5.6%
|
Environmental and regulatory services |
0.1
|
0.3
|
4.6%
|
Total |
4.7
|
8.9
|
12.5%
|
(Source: LGA analysis of multiple public data sources).
Funding gaps
When overall cost pressures are compared with modelled change in core revenue funding for councils we estimate that councils face a £2.3 billion funding gap in 2025/26 rising to £3.9 billion in 2026/27. This is a £6.2 billion shortfall across the two years. These funding gaps relate solely to the funding needed to maintain services at their current levels. The implication here is that councils do not have enough funding simply to stand still.
Our funding gap analysis assumes that council tax referendum thresholds remain at their 2024/25 level going forward and that councils raise their rate to the maximum. This would mean a 5 per cent increase in the rate for social care councils – 3 per cent on council tax plus 2 per cent via the adult social care precept. This implies an above inflation rate increase in council tax for local residents in the middle of a cost of living crisis. Councils will be hugely reluctant to pass these costs on to their residents, but they have very little option as not doing so will widen their funding gap and place more services at risk. Leaving councils with no option other than to raise council tax is not the answer to the sector’s current financial challenges.
Councils’ cost pressures are growing faster than their income.
- Additional cost pressures of £4.7 billion in 2025/26 rising to £8.9 billion in 2026/27 compared to 2024/25.
- Modelled growth in income of £2.4 billion in 2025/26 rising to £5.0 billion in 2026/27 compared to 2024/25.
- Funding gaps of £2.3 billion in 2025/26 rising to £3.9 billion in 2026/27 - £6.2 billion across the two years.
Long-term pressures
Councils’ ability to cope with current cost and demand pressures is hampered by the years of funding reductions in the 2010s. Councils’ core revenue funding has begun to rise in recent years, but we estimate that Core Spending Power is still 22 per cent lower in real terms in 2024/25 compared to 2010/11. Councils are tackling their current cost and demand pressures having already removed roughly one fifth from their budget baselines over the previous years.
But the savings councils have had to make since 2010/11 are not solely due to funding reductions. Councils have also had to deal with growing demand and more complex patterns of need. Taking all of these funding, cost and demand pressures into account it is clear that councils have made huge savings in their service spending since 2010/11.
For instance, our analysis shows that in 2010/11 councils had a cash terms net revenue spend of £45.3 billion on services. This fell in the first half of the 2010s but then grew, partly due to the addition of public health responsibilities, to £58.3 billion by 2022/23. However, we estimate that if council net service spending in 2010/11 had grown in line with inflation, wage growth and demographic and demand drivers it would have been £82.8 billion by 2022/23 – 42 per cent higher than actual service spend in that year. This means that councils have made £24.5 billion worth of cuts or efficiencies to their net service spending from 2010/11 to 2022/23.
Table 2 shows the scale of these cuts and savings by service area. In some service areas such as culture and leisure, and highways and transport net spend in 2022/23 was effectively half of what it would have been had it kept pace with inflation, wage growth and demographic and demand pressure since 2010/11.
Even in service areas with significant statutory responsibilities and demand pressure, service spend is still significantly lower than it would have been had it moved in line with cost and demand pressures. For instance, we estimate that councils have made £6.6 billion in cuts and efficiencies in adult social care net spending from 2010/11 to 2022/23. (This is a conservative estimate. We include modelled demographic pressure but we do not factor in growing complexity of need over this period and any resulting impact on unit costs). Spend on this service area was effectively a third smaller in 2022/23 than if it had moved in line with cost and demand pressures since 2010/11.
Table 2: Modelled cuts and efficiencies by service – 2010/11 to 2022/23
|
Outturn net spend – 2010/11 (£bn) |
Outturn net spend – 2022/23 (£bn) |
Modelled cost pressures – 2022/23 (£bn) |
Modelled cuts and efficiencies –2010/11 to 2022/23 (£bn) |
Housing services |
2.5
|
2.2
|
4.6
|
2.4
|
Culture and leisure |
3.1
|
2.5
|
5.0
|
2.5
|
Highways and transport |
3.8
|
2.8
|
5.4
|
2.6
|
Planning and dev. services |
2.0
|
1.6
|
3.1
|
1.5
|
Environ. and regulatory |
5.2
|
5.9
|
8.7
|
2.8
|
Fire services |
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
Central and other services |
3.1
|
4.0
|
5.2
|
1.3
|
Adult social care |
15.7
|
20.5
|
27.1
|
6.6
|
Home to school transport |
1.0
|
1.9
|
2.4
|
0.5
|
Children’s social care |
8.4
|
12.8
|
16.3
|
3.5
|
Public Health (since 2016/17) |
-
|
3.8
|
4.4
|
0.6
|
Total |
45.3
|
58.3
|
82.8
|
24.5
|
(Source: LGA analysis of multiple public data sets. Methodology available on request)
(Notes. 1. Totals may not sum due to rounding. 2. Data shown is for London Borough Councils, Metropolitan Borough councils, Shire Counties, Shire Districts and Shire Unitaries. The Greater London Authority, standalone fire authorities, Combined Authorities, National Park Authorities and Waste Authorities are excluded. 3. Children’s social care is adjusted to include on Sure Start and services for young people from 2010/11 and throughout the time series).
Financial sustainability and resilience
Budget setting
Councils find themselves in 2024/25 in an incredibly challenging financial position. They face significant funding gaps going forward yet have already made huge cuts and efficiencies in their service budgets since 2010/11. They have to continue to find savings in order to meet demand for statutory services, yet opportunities for savings in discretionary services have largely been exhausted and many of these services have effectively been halved in size. This combination of past and ongoing pressures means that financial resilience in the sector is at an all-time low. An LGA survey following the 2023 Autumn Statement showed that one in five leaders and chief executives felt they are at risk of receiving a Section 114 report by the end of 2024/25.
Exceptional Financial Support
The scale of the pressures facing the sector was demonstrated in February 2024 when the then Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) took the unprecedented step of announcing that 18 councils would receive Exceptional Financial Support in 2024/25 to address financial pressures that the councils considered unmanageable. Almost all these councils (16) had social care responsibilities. This meant that the sector entered 2024/25 with more than 1 in 10 social care councils dependent on a significant one-off relaxation of the financial framework – an agreement that revenue spend could be capitalised - to secure their financial sustainability. While the underlying reasons for this support vary across these councils, the sheer scale of this intervention by the Government indicates the risk of financial failure is potentially becoming systemic.
The sheer number of councils that have been allowed to capitalise revenue spending under the Exceptional Financial Support scheme demonstrates that there is clearly an ongoing need for additional financial support for some councils. However, it is worth considering whether the current scheme is effective. The Institute for Government, for instance, recently described the system in which councils are temporarily allows to borrow or use capital receipts to finance revenue spending as "completely unsustainable".
In our view there is a risk that the system as currently designed could potentially load struggling councils with further debt and/or undermine future capital programmes by burning through councils’ capital receipts. In this context the Government should assure itself that the current Exceptional Financial Support is achieving its objective of supporting councils in returning to financial sustainability in an efficient and effective manner.
Use of reserves
Evidence of this pressure is clear in councils’ recent use of their financial reserves. In 2022/23 there was a net reduction in councils’ total usable reserves (unringfenced earmarked and unallocated reserves) of £1.7 billion, with 59.4 per cent of councils reducing their reserves. Latest figures show that in 2023/24 there was a further reduction of £1.1 billion, with 53.9 per cent of councils reducing their reserves. Councils’ reliance on their reserves across these two years is unprecedented in recent years and is a clear warning signal that a large number of councils are struggling to balance their books. While use of reserves is high across the sector, they are highest amongst councils with social care responsibilities. Some 71.5 per cent of these councils drew on their reserves in 2022/23 and 71.1 per cent in 2023/24.
While some councils have been able to use reserves to temporarily offset budget pressures, drawing on reserves is not a sustainable solution to current budget pressures. While some councils’ reserves grew during the COVID-19 period others did not or did so from a very low base. Furthermore, use of reserves may provide a degree of resilience over the short-term, but this is only temporary as reserves can only be spent once. If councils use reserves repeatedly to offset recurrent pressures they will rapidly find themselves still having to address unfunded pressures but now also with depleted reserves. In this context it is concerning that 42.1 per cent of councils drew down on their reserves in both 2022/23 and 2023/24.
Risks to service sustainability
Service sustainability
Despite the financial pressures councils have faced since 2010/11 the vast majority have met their statutory responsibility to balance their books annually. But this does not mean that services remain unchanged and sustainable. As demonstrated above (Table 2) councils have made huge cuts and efficiencies in their services since 2010/11. Several service areas with fewer statutory responsibilities such as highways and transport are now roughly half the size they would have been had spending increased in line with inflation, wage costs and demographic drivers. But even services with a greater number of statutory responsibilities and regulatory oversight have seen cuts and efficiencies over this period. Lack of capacity will hamper councils’ efforts to support the Government’s missions and play a full part in initiatives such as further digitalisation of public services.
Despite the best efforts of councils to continue to provide the services needed by their residents it is inevitable that the sheer pressure of funding reductions and cost and demand pressures over a prolonged period is impacting on the scale, range and quality of local service provision. Key issues include:
- Council spend is increasingly concentrated in fewer services and on fewer people: As resources have diminished, councils have protected services such as social care (adult and children’s) where there are clearly defined statutory responsibilities and regulatory oversight. Ultimately spending is increasingly concentrated on fewer people, so councils are less able to support local and national agendas on key issues such as housing, economic growth, the cost-of-living crisis, and climate change. On average (at the median) social care accounts for roughly two thirds (65.6 per cent) of budgeted net service spend (excluding education, fire and police) in 2024/25 amongst councils with social care responsibilities, up from 55.8 per cent in 2015/16. In some councils the share of service spend on social care is even higher, with a quarter of social care councils budgeting for social care spending to account for over 70 per cent of their net revenue spend.
- There are growing concerns over the quality and scale of service provision: Due to financial pressures councils are struggling to provide the services their residents need:
- The LGA Annual Resident Satisfaction Survey shows that the share of respondents that are satisfied with council service provision has fallen for every service area in the survey between 2016/17 and 2023/24. Satisfaction levels for each service have all fallen by between 3 and 16 percentage points since 2016/17.
- In children’s social care, Local Child Safeguarding Practice Reviews (undertaken where a child dies or is seriously harmed, and where abuse or neglect was already known or suspected) indicate that many of the issues that undermine the effectiveness of safeguarding practice are to do with serious resource shortages. Separately there is evidence that due to market pressures some councils have no choice but to continue using unregulated placements for under 16-year-olds in care. Ofsted recently stated that, “the national shortage of placements for children with complex needs means some particularly vulnerable children live in these settings for long periods”.
- In adult social care, as of 31 March 2024, 418,029 people were waiting for an assessment, the commencement of their care package or direct payment, or a review of their care plan. Unmet or under-met needs that flow from waiting times in adult social care may lead to greater reliance on unpaid carers. In 2021 there were 2.4 million unpaid carers providing 20 hours or more care weekly, up by 17.3 per cent from 2011. The Nuffield Trust say this ‘indicates a shift towards unpaid carers supporting people with high care needs who may well have drawn on formal care in the past’.
- Reduced spend on preventative services: The growing share of council spending focussed on meeting their statutory obligations has also led to a greater focus on reactive, demand-led spending, such as on temporary accommodation, and a reduction in spend on preventative services. This is despite the growing body of evidence of the financial and social benefits of prevention. For instance, reductions in spending on preventative services for adolescents is highly correlated with rising rates of 16 and 17-year-olds entering care. Equally, sport and cultural services can boost productivity and reduce pressure on the NHS and social care services. Overall, a system in which councils only have sufficient resources to meet demand-led need is likely to offer poorer value for money than one where they are able to invest in preventative measures to manage demand.
Workforce sustainability
Recruitment and retention challenges
A key challenge facing councils in maintaining service sustainability is the growing difficulties in relation to workforce recruitment and retention. LGA research has demonstrated that more than nine in 10 councils are experiencing staff recruitment and retention difficulties. Further evidence produced by the LGA this year demonstrates the particularly acute situation in legal services, finance, adult social care, IT, building control and environmental health. Also:
- In children’s social care Department for Education (DfE) statistics show that the current vacancy rate, the level of children and family social workers leaving during the year, and the sickness absence rate are all the second highest in their data series and higher than pre-pandemic. Children and family social workers report significant increases in their stress levels and workloads over time.
- In adult social care the workforce vacancy rate remains high at 152,000 vacant posts a day in 2022/23 (although this is down from a high of 165,000 in 2021/22 due, in considerable part, to the addition of care workers to the Shortage Occupation List). Turnover rates remain high at 28.3 per cent in 2022/23. On average, care workers with five or more years of experience are paid just 6p per hour more than a care worker with less than a year’s experience. The differential was 33p per hour in March 2016. Four out of five jobs in the economy pay more than care worker median pay.
- The LGA’s 2022 workforce survey revealed more than half of county, district and single tier authorities who responded are experiencing difficulties recruiting planning officers. In 2023, the LGA launched the Pathways to Planning graduate recruitment programme in response to this challenge. In less than a year, Pathways to Planning registered interest from over 30 per cent of the local planning authorities in England and received more than 2,200 applications from graduates. The programme recruited 80 planners in 2023/24 and has the potential to deliver up to 120 new planners every year. The key obstacle to the programme’s growth is local planning authorities’ limited funding: up to 50 per cent of councils who expressed interest in the programme in 2023/24 could not create a new graduate post or fill a vacant post due to financial pressures within the local authority.
National Living Wage
There are multiple factors underlying the sector’s workforce issues, but recent Government policy on the NLW has certainly added further challenges. Over the last few years, significant increases to the NLW have meant pay awards to the 1.4 million people covered by collective bargaining in local government have been heavily weighted towards the lower end of the pay spine leaving the pay rates of middle earning professionals in the sector out of touch with comparable employers not just in the private sector, but in other parts of the public sector too. This exacerbates the recruitment and retention issues reported by 94 per cent of councils that means key roles needed to deliver front line services are vacant.
Local government is supportive of the NLW and understands the Government’s desire to ensure the cost of living is one of the considerations of the Low Pay Commission when recommending changes to the NLW rate. It is imperative, however, that the Government supports that policy by ensuring local government receives sufficient additional funding to ensure the sector can accommodate an increasing NLW in a workable manner. This also applies to the Government’s commitment to “improve public service workers’ living standards throughout the parliament”, which requires a level of sustainable funding for local government that allows the sector to invest in its workforce.
Policy decisions on the NLW must also consider the impact on public sector employers and the services they provide, in particular, social care. It is not in the best interests of the wider economy for the policy towards the NLW to result in reduced public services and local investment if councils are not appropriately funded to meet the additional costs that result. Existing capacity issues in both local government and social care will be exacerbated if NLW commitments are not matched by funding commitments to the sector.
Local government pay competitiveness
The limits of funding and the accelerated increase of the NLW in recent years have exacerbated local government’s pay comparability not only with the private sector, who compete for key professionals in areas like building control, planning and law, but also the public sector, most commonly the NHS. To illustrate the difficulty the sector is in; while the recent announcements on public sector pay mean that social workers in the NHS will receive a pay award of 5.5 per cent, with the required funding made available to their employers; social workers in local government are likely to receive an award in the region of 3 per cent because the full and final offer made by the National Employers, which is at the limit of affordability for employers, has to be weighted towards the lower end of the pay spine as a result of the need to comply with the NLW.
With two of the nationally recognised trade unions announcing formal ballots for industrial action in response to the National Employers’ offer, it is imperative that decisions made regarding funding for one group of public sector workers who are subject to Pay Review Bodies are not at the expense of another group whose pay is set through collective bargaining. The LGA understands the Government’s priority to introduce a new deal for working people and is keen to work with government, for example on the reinstatement of the Schools Support Staff Negotiating Body and the Fair Pay Agreement for Adult Social Care and we hope that existing collective bargaining is not disadvantaged when the Government is considering the funding level for the sector.
Apprenticeships
Councils have paid almost £1 billion into the Apprenticeships Levy since 2017 but have only been able to spend around £485 million (49.9 per cent) due to the restrictive rules around its usage. To date almost £200 million has been returned to HMRC meaning that while council funding is stretched to breaking point in many places, the sector is losing money that it would like to be able to use to bring together the two key objectives of improving local government workforce capacity and improving skills and opportunities in local communities. The Government should allow councils to retain unutilised apprenticeship levy, to be able to redirect that resource into improving local government workforce skills and capacity.
An outdated and inefficient funding system
The financial challenges faced by councils have been exacerbated by a local government funding system which has not been subject to significant reform since the introduction of 50 per cent business rates retention in 2013/14. Councils operate in a dated, patched-up system where financial planning is hindered by a drip feed of one-year finance settlements and financial sustainability is increasingly secured by one-off grants or Exceptional Financial Support from Government.
A crucial issue is that councils’ ability to mitigate the funding and demand pressures they face has been hampered by one-year funding settlements and continued uncertainty over funding reforms. These act as obstacles to councils making innovative and meaningful decisions, limit their ability to focus on long term strategic and economic planning, and undermine their financial sustainability. The potential to deliver maximum value for money is held back by uncertainty and a limited ability to plan for the future. For instance, councils may end up planning on the assumption that they will have less funding available to them than is the case, needlessly scaling back non-statutory services and making redundancies.
The system has effectively been drifting for a number of years. The last major reform of revenue funding arrangements took place in 2013/14 with the introduction of the system for 50 per cent local retention on business rates. As a consequence, key elements of the funding system, including the data and formulae at the heart of the allocation model, have not kept pace with changed patterns of need and demand locally. The IFS has estimated that only 39 local areas out of 150 in England receive a share of funding that is within 5 per cent of their share of estimated spending needs.
Overall, the funding system is out of date, opaque, and overly complex. It also limits the ability of councils to be more self-sufficient by raising income from other sources. The system needs reform urgently.
Actions to support council finances over the short and long-term
While there is a strong case for wholesale reform of the local government funding system, the pressing nature of the challenges faced by the sector means that immediate interventions to help stabilise councils’ finances are also needed. We think there are a range of interventions the Government could take now to simplify and create certainty within the funding system, realign funding with assessed need and add flexibility to current funding sources.
In order to address the immediate financial pressures faced by councils Government should:
- Provide additional funding and certainty. Government should:
- Provide councils with a significant and sustained increase in overall funding that reflects current and future demands for services.
- Provide councils with multi-year and timely finance settlements.
- Provide general rather than ring-fenced grant funding, reduce the fragmentation of government funding and end the use of competitive bidding to allocate grant funding.
- Update data and formulae in the allocation model. Government should:
- Commit to the Fair Funding Review (FFR), reviewing both the formulae and the underlying data used for the assessment of relative needs and resources. Transitional mechanisms attached to the outcome of the FFR should provide sufficient funding to ensure that no council experiences a loss of income.
- Provide certainty over financial reforms including the business rates reset, the FFR, and reforms to other grants such as the New Homes Bonus, and consulting on any potential changes in a timely manner.
- Provide additional freedoms and flexibilities. Government should:
- Give councils the power to vary all council tax discounts including the single person discount which is worth around £3 billion a year.
- Abolish council tax referendum limits so, in due course, alongside the completion of the FFR, councils and their communities can decide what increase in council tax is warranted to help protect or improve local services.
- Enable councils to charge developers or landowners full Band D council tax for every unbuilt development in order to improve the build-out rates of homes with planning permission and reduce the number of stalled sites.
- Give councils more flexibility on business rates reliefs such as charitable and empty property relief and introduce further clampdowns on business rates avoidance along the lines of those introduced in Wales and Scotland.
- Give councils the ability to set their own business rates multiplier, or at the very least be able to set a multiplier above and below the nationally set multiplier.
- Fully localise sales, fees and charges, including road user charges and workplace parking levies. Give councils the flexibility to set planning fees at a local level so that can they cover their full costs relating to planning.
- In order to address the need for more substantive, long-term reform of the funding system:
- There should be a cross-party review of, and debate on, options to improve the local government funding system.
- There is a need for a fundamental review of council tax alongside other council funding sources. We urge all stakeholders to engage in this debate and to seek a sector-wide, cross-party consensus on the future of council tax.
- The review has to include consideration of whether business rates retention represents a viable future funding model.
A revised funding model should include bold, creative solutions. Alongside any reforms to existing funding sources, devolved or new funding streams are needed to supplement existing council revenue resources. A reinvigorated debate around additional and/or alternative forms of local income for councils needs to begin now. Equally, any reform of council funding should also consider how spending is best co-ordinated across the range of public bodies delivering services locally. Government should:
- Consider assigning each local area a proportion of nationally collected taxes. It would be for local politicians in partnership with local providers to decide on priorities and the allocation of funding.
- Consider alternative sources of income for local government such as an e-commerce levy or ‘tourism tax’ with the funding retained by local government.
- Consider introducing multi-department place-based budgets, explicitly built around the needs of diverse local communities – with a shared financial and governance framework which will mean that services can better align with local priorities and local duplication of efforts can be eliminated.
Pressures outside the General Fund Revenue Account
The preceding material has focused on issues affecting councils’ General Fund Revenue Accounts. But there is growing evidence that councils face financial challenges across the full range of their finances. Councils’ Housing Revenue Accounts are increasingly under pressure (see Priority 3 section on “Building the houses we need”). Some councils are also face growing deficits in the high needs block of their Dedicated Schools Grant (see Priority 4 section on “Supporting our children and young people”).
Pressures on councils’ capital programmes
There is also growing evidence of pressure on councils’ capital programmes. These council investment programmes play a crucial role in delivering local capital infrastructure, such as transport and roads, economic regeneration and housing and school improvements. Capital investment by councils will be crucial to delivering the government’s missions, as well as making the public sector more efficient.
Declining infrastructure
Since 2017/18 English councils have spent between £20 billion and £22 billion each year on capital investment; this has proved to be insufficient and has left local authorities with a significant capital backlog.
For schools, according to the NAO, in its 2020 Spending Review case the Department for Education (DfE) estimated that £7 billion was needed for best-practice level of annual funding but also recommended minimum capital funding of £5.3 billion a year for maintenance and to mitigate the most serious risks of building failure. Since then, in 2021/22 and 2022/23, DfE was allocated £1.8 billion for maintenance and repair, and an average of £1.3 billion a year for schools rebuilding, a shortfall of more than £2 billion per year on the figures for most serious risks of building failure, and nearly £4 billion per year on best practice.
In terms of local roads maintenance, figures in the ALARM survey 2024 by the Asphalt Industries Alliance show that the amount of outstanding roads maintenance at March 2024 for England and Wales is now £16.3 billion. The work to address this would take a decade to complete. The NAO in its report on the condition and maintenance of local roads in England, has estimated that the “England” share of this backlog is £15.3 billion.
The estimated combined backlog is in excess of £20 billion for these two areas alone. These are just two high profile areas of local government. There are many others – for example, LGA research in 2021 demonstrated a need for an additional £875 million capital investment in leisure facilities, pitches, and parks. The overall backlog for all services must be well in excess of £20 billion. Addressing this crumbling infrastructure, through long term investment, needs to be a priority for this spending review.
Increases in borrowing costs and inflation
Prudential borrowing relies on councils having sufficient revenue funding to pay interest and repayments; a £20 billion capital backlog would need ongoing revenue funding of £1 billion per year to service interest costs. Funding from government grants relies on long term investment through the spending review and beyond.
Over 80 per cent of recent capital programmes have been funded by government grants and prudential borrowing, in broadly equal measure. The continuation of the Prudential Framework is crucial to the delivery of council capital programmes. The overall framework for capital finance should continue to allow local authorities wide freedoms to borrow and invest, without the need to seek prior approval from government.
Inflation on capital spend has reduced what local authorities can buy with available capital funding. The index of construction costs rose 20 points between late 2021 and summer 2024. This was equivalent to the rise over the whole of the previous seven years (2014 – 2021). As a result of this, the same level of capital outlay on construction can now can only deliver just over 80 per cent of the infrastructure that it could in 2021. Or, in other words, the same amount of capital construction will cost 20 per cent more.
At the same time, council capital programmes have been hit by rising interest rates. Since 2020, Public Works Loans Board rates have grown significantly, from below 1.5 per cent in November 2020 to more than 5 per cent in summer 2024. This means that for the same interest cost, a council can now borrow less than a third of what it could in November 2020.
Taking the impacts of inflation and interest rates together, councils capital programmes are under significantly more pressure. In simple terms, a £1 million construction project in 2021 and funded by a typical 10-year loan, would have an outlay of £1 million funded by a loan which would incur interest (at 1.5 per cent, £15,000 per year) of £150,000 over 10 years, a total of £1.15 million when the loan is repaid. If the same scheme were started in 2024 it would have an outlay of £1.2 million to be funded from a loan which would incur interest (at 5 per cent, £60,000 per year) of £600,000 over 10 years, a total of £1.8 million when the loan is repaid. This is an increase of nearly 60 per cent.