Summary
Background
In September and October 2020 the Local Government Association (LGA) conducted a survey of Heads of Planning of English local planning authorities. The purpose of this survey was to estimate the number of dwellings allocated in local plans which had not yet either received permission or were yet under consideration. A total of 192 replied – a response rate of 59 per cent. The respondents were broadly representative of all English regions and types of council.
Key findings
- Across England there are over a million homes allocated in local plans which are waiting to be taken up by the development industry.
- These sites do not yet have planning permission but have formally been identified as suitable for housing by local councils through the local plan process. These are not necessarily brownfield sites, but sustainable locations that have been tested at the examination of the plan.
- This amounts to an additional 4.4 years’ worth of housing supply on top of the 5 years of housing land supply many councils can demonstrate. Including an allowance for dwellings from windfalls increases this to 6.8 years’ worth of housing supply for England.
The regions with the longest housing pipeline were Yorkshire and Humberside, at 9.1, and the East of England, at 8.6. The shortest pipelines were in the South West and North East at 5 years.
Introduction
In September and October 2020 the Local Government Association (LGA) conducted a survey of Heads of Planning of English local authorities with responsibility for planning. The purpose of this survey was to estimate the number of dwellings allocated in local plans which had not yet either received permission or were yet under consideration. The survey also aimed to estimate, using the annualised housing requirement, the number of years it would take for those dwellings to be processed.
The results of this survey were to inform the LGA response to two consultations: a consultation on changes to the current planning system, closing on 1 October 2020, and the ‘Planning for the future’ consultation, closing on 29 October 2020.
Methodology
Between 22 September and 16 October 2020, the LGA’s Research and Information Team sent an online survey to all Heads of Planning or equivalent for all local authorities with responsibility for planning in England. This includes district councils, unitary authorities (including the Isles of Scilly), metropolitan borough councils, London boroughs (including the City of London) and a small number of non-council local authorities such as National Park authorities. The survey was sent to a total of 326 local authorities. A total of 192 replied – a response rate of 59 per cent.
Whilst these results should strictly be taken as a snapshot of the views of this particular group of respondents, rather than representative of all Heads of Planning, this level of response means that the results are likely to provide a good indication of the position of the sector more widely.
Table 1 and Figure 1 provide a breakdown of response rate by type of authority. As can be seen, response rates varied between different authority types, although in general a reasonable number of authorities from each type, with the exception of ‘Other’, non-council local authorities, took part in the survey. The type of authority with the highest response rate was unitary authorities, at 70 per cent. The type of authority with the lowest response rate, excluding ‘Other’ authorities, was metropolitan districts, at 44 per cent.
Type of authority | Total number | Number of responses | Response rate % |
---|---|---|---|
District | 188 | 119 | 63% |
London borough | 33 | 16 | 48% |
Metropolitan district | 36 | 16 | 44% |
Unitary | 57 | 40 | 70% |
Other | 12 | 1 | 8% |
Table 2 and Figure 2 provide a breakdown of response rate by region. As can be seen, response rates differed significantly by region, although a reasonable level of participation was received from all regions. The region with the highest response rate was the East of England, at 75 per cent. The region with the lowest response rate was London, at 46 per cent. Please note that there are 35 local planning authorities in London (33 London Boroughs plus two development corporations).
Region | Total number | Number of responses | Response rate% |
---|---|---|---|
East Midlands | 40 | 30 | 75% |
East of England | 46 | 26 | 57% |
London | 35 | 16 | 46% |
North East | 13 | 8 | 65% |
North West | 41 | 20 | 49% |
South East | 66 | 37 | 56% |
South West | 32 | 23 | 72% |
West Midlands | 30 | 17 | 57% |
Yorkshire and Humberside | 23 | 15 | 65% |
Estimation of values for non-responding local authorities
In order to produce the overall estimates featured below, it was necessary to estimate values for those local authorities which did not respond. These authorities were assigned the average value reported by responding authorities which shared the same region and authority type – for example, the average for metropolitan boroughs in the North West.
Local Plan Housing Allocations Survey
This section contains analysis of the results from the survey.
Net additional and annualised housing requirements
Each authority was asked for the net additional housing requirement adopted in their Local Plan. This refers to the need for additional housing within an authority’s area by the end of the period to which its Local Plan applied.
As Table 3 shows, the estimated total of these net additional housing requirements across England was just under 4.1 million. This can be broken down by how recently the Local Plan was adopted, by region and by authority type. Of the 4.1 million total, almost 1.8 million – 44 per cent – was accounted for by authorities with Local Plans adopted less than five years ago. The remaining 2.3 million, 56 per cent of the total, were accounted for by authorities with Local Plans adopted more than five years ago. The region with the highest share of the housing requirement was the South East, at 17 per cent, and the region with the lowest share was the North East, at three per cent. District councils accounted for the largest share of the housing requirement, at 44 per cent, whilst London boroughs accounted for 13 per cent.
Table 3 also shows the net additional annualised housing requirement. This is the total housing requirement divided by the number of years in an authority’s Local Plan period. The total represents the average number of new houses required each year to meet the total housing requirement.
The estimated total for the net additional annualised housing requirements across England was around 223,000. Broken down, around 96,000 (43 per cent) of this was accounted for by authorities with Local Plans adopted less than five years ago, and 127,000 (57 per cent) was accounted for by authorities with Local Plans adopted more than five years ago. The region with the biggest share of net additional annualised requirements was, as with the total net additional housing requirement, the South East, at 17 per cent, and the region with the lowest share was once again the North East, at three per cent. District councils again accounted for the largest share of the annualised housing requirement, at 41 per cent, whilst London boroughs accounted for the lowest share among council local authorities, at 16 per cent.
Total housing requirement | Annualised housing requirement | |||
No. | % | No. | % | |
Overall for England | 4,092,300 | 100% | 223,000 | 100% |
Plan adopted less than 5 years ago | 1,790,000 | 44% | 95,600 | 43% |
Plan adopted more than 5 years ago | 2,302,300 | 56% | 127,400 | 57% |
East Midlands | 410,600 | 10% | 20,700 | 9% |
East of England | 571,800 | 14% | 28,000 | 13% |
London | 529,200 | 13% | 35,100 | 16% |
North East | 140,900 | 3% | 7,200 | 3% |
North West | 419,000 | 10% | 23,200 | 10% |
South East | 697,800 | 17% | 38,900 | 17% |
South West | 529,100 | 13% | 27,000 | 13% |
West Midlands | 361,800 | 9% | 17,700 | 9% |
Yorkshire and Humber | 432,200 | 11% | 25,300 | 11% |
District | 1,804,500 | 44% | 91,000 | 41% |
London Borough | 529,200 | 13% | 35,100 | 16% |
Metropolitan borough | 700,100 | 17% | 39,600 | 18% |
Unitary | 1,058,500 | 26% | 57,300 | 26% |
Note: figures have been rounded to the nearest hundred. As such, they may not add up with complete precision. Percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole per cent. Authority types classed as ‘Other’ have not been analysed separately due to small numbers and sparsity of provided data.
Dwellings allocated over the Local Plan period
Authorities were asked for the number of dwellings for which their Local Plan allocates land over the period to which it applies. These allocations are intended to partially, but not wholly, fulfil the Local Plan’s adopted total housing requirement.
As Table 4 shows, the total number of dwellings for which land was allocated in Local Plans across England was around 2.7 million. Just under 1.2 million of these (43 per cent) were accounted for by authorities with Local Plans adopted less than five years ago, and the remaining 1.5 million (57 per cent) were accounted for by authorities with Local Plans adopted more than five years ago. The South East had the largest proportion of these, at 16 per cent, whilst the North East had the lowest, at three per cent. Districts accounted for the greatest percentage of allocations, at 45 per cent, whilst London boroughs accounted for 13 per cent.
Dwellings allocated over the local plan period | ||
No. | % | |
Overall for England | 2,676,200 | 100% |
Plan adopted less than 5 years ago | 1,156,100 | 43% |
Plan adopted more than 5 years ago | 1,520,100 | 57% |
East Midlands | 300,700 | 11% |
East of England | 375,900 | 14% |
London | 344,700 | 13% |
North East | 75,600 | 3% |
North West | 232,200 | 9% |
South East | 441,400 | 16% |
South West | 275,500 | 10% |
West Midlands | 307,300 | 11% |
Yorkshire and Humber | 322,900 | 12% |
District | 1,201,500 | 45% |
London borough | 344,700 | 13% |
Metropolitan borough | 497,500 | 19% |
Unitary or other | 632,600 | 24% |
Note: figures have been rounded to the nearest hundred. As such, they may not add up with complete precision. Percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole per cent. Authority types classed as ‘Other’ have not been analysed separately due to small numbers and sparsity of provided data.
Dwellings currently without permission and not under consideration
Authorities were asked for the number of dwellings allocated in their Local Plan which had so far received permission. They were also asked for the number of dwellings allocated in their Local Plan which had not received permission, but were currently under consideration. The sum of these two measures was subtracted from the total number of dwellings allocated to arrive at a measure for the number of allocated dwellings which were without permission and not under consideration at the time of data collection.
Table 5 and Figures 3, 4 and 5 show the estimated total number of allocated dwellings currently without permission and not under consideration across England, including a breakdown by how recently the Local Plan was adopted, region and authority type. As can be seen, the estimated total number of allocated dwellings currently without permission or not under consideration was over 1 million. Of this, a little less than 460,000 (46 per cent) were accounted for by authorities with Local Plans adopted less than five years ago, and over 540,000 (54 per cent) were accounted for by authorities with Local Plans adopted more than five years ago. The regions with the greatest share of allocated dwellings without permission and not under consideration were the East of England, the South East and the West Midlands, each at 15 per cent. The region with the smallest share was the North East, at 3 per cent. Districts accounted for around 44% of these dwellings, whilst London boroughs accounted for around 13 per cent.
Allocated dwellings currently without permission and not under consideration | ||
No. | % | |
Overall for England | 1,003,600 | 100% |
Plan adopted less than 5 years ago | 458,800 | 46% |
Plan adopted more than 5 years ago | 544,700 | 54% |
East Midlands | 99,200 | 10% |
East of England | 150,900 | 15% |
London | 133,800 | 13% |
North East | 27,200 | 3% |
North West | 100,000 | 10% |
South East | 148,100 | 15% |
South West | 68,000 | 7% |
West Midlands | 146,900 | 15% |
Yorkshire and Humber | 129,500 | 13% |
District | 437,100 | 44% |
London borough | 133,800 | 13% |
Metropolitan borough | 238,700 | 24% |
Unitary or other | 194,000 | 19% |
Note: figures have been rounded to the nearest hundred. As such, they may not add up with complete precision. Percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole per cent. Authority types classed as ‘Other’ have not been analysed separately due to small numbers and sparsity of provided data.
Number of years of supply
The final stage in the analysis was to estimate how many years of development are already allocated in plans – that is, how long would it take the development industry to build out all the land already allocated without planning permission. This was calculated using the following process:
Calculate the dwellings: The net dwellings allocated was divided by the total housing requirement, to understand the relationship between dwellings on allocated sites as opposed to ‘windfalls’. Windfalls are a standard component of land supply and defined by the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) as dwellings not specifically identified in the development plan that come forward as a reliable source of completion.
Calculate the annual delivery rate: The average yearly rate of additional dwellings for 2016/17 to 2018/19, according to data provided by the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG), was used to divide the number of allocated dwellings currently without permission and not under consideration, to provide the estimated number of years required to process allocated dwellings alone.
Calculate the years of supply: The 2,676,200 net dwellings allocated by local authorities across England constituted 65 per cent of the total housing requirement of 4,092,300 adopted in their Local Plans. The 1,003,600 allocated dwellings without permission and not under consideration, divided by the average annual rate of additional dwellings of 227,000, was 4.4, meaning it represents an additional pipeline of almost four and a half years of land supply. Factoring in windfalls increases the pipeline to 6.8 years. Table 6 displays these estimates, overall and broken down by when the authority’s Local Plan was adopted, region and authority type.
Allocations as % of housing requirement | Average annual rate of additional dwellings | Years of delivery on allocated sites | Years of delivery including windfalls | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Overall for England | 65% | 227,000 | 4.4 | 6.8 |
Plan adopted less than 5 years ago | 65% | 132,100 | 3.5 | 5.4 |
Plan adopted more than 5 years ago | 66% | 94,800 | 5.7 | 8.7 |
East Midlands | 73% | 21,100 | 4.7 | 6.4 |
East of England | 66% | 26,800 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
London | 65% | 35,800 | 3.7 | 6.7 |
North East | 54% | 10,100 | 2.7 | 5.0 |
North West | 55% | 26,800 | 3.7 | 6.7 |
South East | 63% | 39,100 | 3.8 | 6.0 |
South West | 52% | 26,200 | 2.6 | 5.0 |
West Midlands | 85% | 22,000 | 6.7 | 7.9 |
Yorkshire & Humber | 75% | 19,100 | 6.8 | 9.1 |
District | 67% | 94,500 | 4.4 | 6.7 |
London borough | 65% | 35,800 | 3.7 | 5.7 |
Metropolitan borough | 71% | 39,800 | 6.0 | 8.4 |
Unitary or other | 60% | 52,800 | 3.7 | 6.2 |